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Israeli and U.S. intelligence officials believe that a projectile captured on videos shortly before the Ahli Arab Hospital explosion was a Palestinian rocket.@nytimes Visual Investigations found that this object was launched from Israel, and likely unrelated to the deadly blast. pic.twitter.com/zW35bLQBt0— Aric Toler (@AricToler) October 25, 2023
An IDF spokesperson went on CNN and the BBC with a printed-out screenshot from an Al Jazeera livestream showing this projectile, claiming it was the rocket that hit the hospital. We also believe that American officials are incorrectly assessing this to be a Palestinian rocket. pic.twitter.com/zUP64v5eCN— Aric Toler (@AricToler) October 25, 2023
We geolocated five videos that showed this projectile launch from the north, south, east and west. By drawing lines of perspective, three of which can be seen here, we assessed that this project was launched from near the Israeli city of Nahal Oz. pic.twitter.com/ctLo14NpZ2— Aric Toler (@AricToler) October 25, 2023
This projectile may have been launched in reaction to barrages of rockets from Gaza.— Aric Toler (@AricToler) October 25, 2023
A timeline:
1) Palestinian rocket barrages, followed shortly by
2) Israeli projectile launch
3) 17.5 seconds in air before the projectile detonates
4) Explosion at the hospital 7 seconds later pic.twitter.com/fpGunvAznJ
The situation in the area around the hospital was chaotic that evening. The Al Jazeera livestream of the scene, plus other videos we reviewed, shows at least two large explosions near the hospital in the minute before the deadly blast. pic.twitter.com/72jxWNez1R— Aric Toler (@AricToler) October 25, 2023